Timothée Poisot

Where will reservoirs of the raccoon rabies virus in Québec be by 2100? In a recent preprint based on the Honor thesis of Ariane Bussières-Fournel, now online at EcoEvoRxiv, we use species distribution models and techniques from interpretable machine learning, to highlight a few interesting results.

• Under most SSP-RCP scenarios, the range of both P. lotor and M. mephitis are potentially increasing, representing a dramatic habitat shift
• More pessimistic climate scenarios are likely to result to a local advantage to raccoons compared to skunks, with this effect amplifying as time passes and climate change worsens

These results share a common generating mechanism. Although both reservoirs are well predicted by some share environmental variables, their response to these variables, and the places in which they are locally more important, are very contrasted. This can lead to decoupling in their response to climate change, resulting in both a large expansion of the range covered by at least one species as well as the differentiation in habitat suitability over time.

As cases of the raccoon rabies virus in Québec have been detected again after ten years of quiet, these results show how climate change, through their impact on the distribution of reservoirs, can set the stage for future zoonotic oubtreaks.